Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Momme Butenschön¹  Aitor Larrañaga¹  Leire Ibaibarriaga¹  Ernesto Villarino¹  Priscilla Licandro¹  Guillem Chust¹  Xabier Irigoien¹ 

关键词: Zooplankton;    Habitat suitability;    GAM;    Climate change;    North Atlantic;    Biogeography;   

DOI  :  10.3354/meps11299

学科分类：海洋学与技术

来源: Inter-Research

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

【 授权许可】

Unknown