Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Predict the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Zibo, China, 2004–2014

Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases

Yunping Zhou¹  Shenyong Zhai¹  Tao Wang¹  Zhenshui Huang¹  Ling Wang¹  Feng Cui¹ 

[1] Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, People's Republic of China

关键词: autoregressive integrated moving average model;    hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome;    forecasting;   

DOI  :  10.7883/yoken.JJID.2014.567

学科分类：传染病学

来源: National Institute of Infectious Diseases

【 摘 要 】

References(29)Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Zibo City is one of the most seriously affected areas in Shandong Province, China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Zibo to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for monthly HFRS incidence in Zibo from 2004 to 2013. The ARIMA (3,1,1) × (2,1,1)12 model is reliable with a high validity, which can be used to predict the next year's HFRS incidence in Zibo. The forecast results suggest that the HFRS incidence in Zibo will experience a slight growth in the next year.

【 授权许可】

Unknown