Assessing the response of runoff to climate change and human activities for a typical basin in the Northern Taihang Mountain, China

Journal of earth system science

Yanchuan Gao^2²  Jinfeng Wang^1³  Sheng Wang^3,4⁴ 

[1] Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 16, Lincui Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100 101, China.^4;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100 101, China.^2;School of Geograghical Science, Shanxi Normal University, No. 1, Gongyuan Street, Linfen 041 004, Shanxi, China.^1;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 19A, Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100 049, China.^3

关键词: Runoff variation;    climate change;    human activities;    SWAT model;    elasticity coefficient method;    Taihang Mountain;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：天文学(综合)

来源: Indian Academy of Sciences

【 摘 要 】

Climate change and human activities are the two main factors on runoff change. Quantifying the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change is important for water resources planning and management. In this study, the variation trend and abrupt change point of hydrometeorological factors during 1960–2012 were detected by using the Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt change-point statistics. Then the runoff was simulated by SWAT model. The contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change was calculated based on the SWAT model and the elasticity coefficient method. The results showed that in contrast to the increasing trend for annual temperature, the significant decreasing trends were detected for annual runoff and precipitation, with an abrupt change point in 1982. The simulated results of SWAT had good consistency with observed ones, and the values of R2 and ENS all exceeded 0.75. The two methods used for assessing the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction yielded consistent results. The contribution of climate change (precipitation reduction and temperature rise) was ~37.5%, while the contribution of human activities (the increase of economic forest and built-up land, hydrologic projects) was ~62.5%.

【 授权许可】

CC BY