Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Earth Interactions

David MontenegroLapola¹ 

关键词: Tropical agriculture;    Cattle ranching;    Climate change adaptation;    Integrated assessment;    Cerrado;   

DOI  :  10.1175/2010EI333.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractClimate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km2 (+20%) in the Amazon an...

【 授权许可】

Unknown