Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America*

Earth Interactions

TristanBallard¹ 

关键词: North America;    Climate change;    Hydrologic cycle;    Climate variability;    Ecosystem effects;   

DOI  :  10.1175/EI-D-14-0004.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractThe Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the northern Great Plains is a vital ecosystem responsible each year for producing 50%–80% of new recruits to the North American duck population. Climate variability and change can impact the hydrology and ecology of the region with implications for waterfowl populations. The historical relationship between PPR wetlands, duck populations, and seasonal hydroclimate are explored. Model experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are used to determine whether a recent wetting trend is due to natural variability or changing climate and how PPR hydroclimate will change into the future. Year-to-year variations in May duck populations, pond numbers, and the Palmer drought severity index are well correlated over past decades. Pond and duck numbers tend to increase in spring following La Niña events, but the correlation is not strong. Model simulations suggest that the strengthening of the precipitation gradient across the PPR over the past cent...

【 授权许可】

Unknown