Climate change impacts related flood hazard to communities around Bantimurung Bulusaraung National Park, Indonesia

1st International Conference on Global Issue for Infrastructure, Environment & Socio-Economic Development

经济学;社会科学（总论）

Barkey, R.^1 ; Nursaputra, M.^2 ; Mappiase, M.F.^1 ; Achmad, M.^3 ; Solle, M.^3 ; Dassir, M.^4

Research Centre for Natural Heritage, Biodiversity and Climate Change, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia^1

Forestry Planning and Information System Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia^2

Faculty of Agriculture, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia^3

Faculty of Forestry, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia^4

关键词: Actual conditions;    Climate change impact;    Climate change projections;    Climate variability;    Complex characteristics;    National parks;    Rainfall intensity;    Soil and water assessment tool;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/235/1/012022/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/235/1/012022

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Climate variability in a region leads to the increased rainfall intensity during the rainy season and the increasing number of days of the dry season. This condition is happening in most of Indonesia, especially in the South Sulawesi province where it has a quite complex characteristic of the ecosystem. One of them is Bantimurung-Bulusaraung National Park with a special characteristic of the landscape in the form of karst area and the people in the buffer villages located in Maros, Pangkajene Kepulauan and Bone Regions depend on their livelihoods in the park. One of the impacts of climate changes happening around the National Park area is the increasing potential of the flood. The flood mostly occurs due to the high rainfall in the rainy season supported by the characteristics of the land in the form of karst area that very quickly passes the water. Flood hazard analysis in Bantimurung-Bulusaraung National Park area was assessed by using Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model on actual condition (climate period 2004-2013) and projection of climate change in the 2030s using scenario RCP 4.5 (rainfall scenario tend to decrease) and RCP 6.0 (rainfall scenario tend to increase). Based on the SWAT model analysis results, it is known that there are areas of the buffer villages of Bantimurung-Bulusaraung National Park, which has a very high level of flood, which the actual condition of the affected area is 10,380.31 ha and on climate change projection of scenario RCP 4.5 covering 9,061.99 ha and RCP 6.0 scenario covering 24,188.26 ha.