Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

Earth Interactions

Andrew R.Bock¹ 

关键词: General circulation models;    Hydrologic models;    Precipitation;    Runoff;    Temperature;   

DOI  :  10.1175/EI-D-17-0018.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractThe accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT...

【 授权许可】

Unknown