Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach

Journal of Public Sector Economics

Beznoska, Martin¹ 

关键词: public finance;    tax revenue;    demographic change;    microsimulation;   

DOI  :  10.3326/pse.41.1.8.

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Institute of Public Finance

【 摘 要 】

As a result of high net migration, both Germany’s overall population and its workforce potential are currently growing. However, within a few years this demographic trend will be reversed, leading to a decline in population as a whole and especially in the number of those gainfully employed. In this paper, we use a population projection to apply a static ageing approach to German micro data. Then, we simulate income tax revenue with a microsimulation model for the future population. In 20 years’ time the annual price-adjusted income tax loss is estimated to be equal to € 18 billion or almost 7 per cent. This fall in income tax revenue resulting from a shrinking and ageing society will place a huge strain on public finances in Germany, an effect further enhanced by the shift of the tax burden from pension contributions to pension benefits.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC