Extreme Weather Events and their Consequences

Papers on Global Change

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz¹ 

[1] Institute for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań, Bukowska 19, Poland

关键词: weather extremes;    climate change impacts;    heat waves;    floods;   

DOI  :  10.1515/igbp-2016-0005

学科分类：天文学(综合)

来源: Polska Akademia Nauk * Instytut Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania / Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization

【 摘 要 】

The damage (in real terms after adjusting for inflation) caused by extreme weather events globally has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This is a result of an increase in the amplitude and frequency of weather extremes, as well as of human factors causing a widespread increase in levels of exposure and vulnerability. There are a number of reasons to consider that, in many regions of the globe, weather extremes (e.g. heat waves, droughts, forest fires, intense rainfall, floods and landslides) are becoming both yet more extreme and more frequent. Projections for the future based on climate and impact models point to a further strengthening of this trend. There has already been an increase in rainfall intensity in conditions of a warmer climate, and a continuation of this trend is expected, with adverse consequences for flood risk. However, the development of flood-prone areas and increase in damage potential are often the dominant factors underpinning growing flood damage and flood risk. In warmer climates, an increased risk of river and flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall, as well as an increasing risk of coastal flooding associated with sea level rise can be expected over large areas. By the same token, a reduction in the risk of snowmelt flooding events is projected in the warmer climate. Projections also indicate an increased risk of drought in many areas. The projections for climate change in Poland point to several risks associated with an increase in the frequency, intensity and severity of weather extremes (heat waves, intensive rainfall, flooding and landslides, coastal surges, drought during the growing season and winter, strong winds and pathogens associated with warming). Heat waves will become more frequent, more intense and more troublesome for the ageing population of Poland.

【 授权许可】

Unknown