Effects of Baseline Conditions on the Simulated Hydrologic Response to Projected Climate Change

Earth Interactions

Kathryn M.Koczot¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    Baseline conditions;    Downscaling;    Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System;   

DOI  :  10.1175/2011EI378.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractChanges in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study.Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variab...

【 授权许可】

Unknown