Exploring Winter Mortality Variability in Five Regions of England Using Back Trajectory Analysis

Earth Interactions

K.Dimitriou¹ 

关键词: Winter weather and health;    Air masses;    Back trajectory analysis;    Mortality;    Low temperature episodes;   

DOI  :  10.1175/EI-D-15-0012.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractThis paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in England, for the 26-yr period 1974–99, and to reveal possible associations with increased mortality rates. For this purpose, backward airmass trajectories, corresponding to LTE in five regions of England, were deployed. A statistically significant increase in mortality levels, at the 0.05 level, was found for LTE, compared to non-LTE days across all five regions. Seven categories of atmospheric trajectory patterns associated with LTE were identified: east, local, west, North Atlantic, Arctic, southwest, and Scandinavian. Consideration of the link between airmass trajectory patterns and mortality levels by region revealed a possible west-to-east split in the nature of air masses connected with elevated mortality. Specifically, for the West Midlands and northwest regions, relatively warm winter weather conditions from the west, most likely associated with the eastward progress...

【 授权许可】

Unknown