The psychology of Bayesian reasoning

Frontiers in Psychology

David R. M¹ 

关键词: Bayesian reasoning;    belief revision;    subjective probability;    human judgment;    psychological methods;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01144

学科分类：心理学（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Most psychological research on Bayesian reasoning since the 1970s has used a type of problem that tests a certain kind of statistical reasoning performance. The subject is given statistical facts within a hypothetical scenario. Those facts include a base-rate statistic and one or two diagnostic probabilities. The subject is meant to use that information to arrive at a “posterior” probability estimate. For instance, in one well-known problem (Eddy, 1982) the subject encounters the following:.

【 授权许可】

CC BY