Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors

International Journal of Health Geographics

Rousseau F Djouaka²  Lilian K Igweta¹  Henry S Juarez³  David P Tchouassi¹  Henri EZ Tonnang¹ 

[1] International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), Nairobi, Kenya;International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Cotonou, Benin;Agrosanidad SAC / Archana EIRL, Jerez Q-8 Mayorazgo III Etapa, Lima 03, Peru

关键词: Anopheles arabiensis;    Anopheles gambiae s.s;    African countries;    Eco-climatic index;    Climate change;   

Others  :  804741
DOI  :  10.1186/1476-072X-13-12

 received in 2014-02-03, accepted in 2014-04-27,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns.

Methods

We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km²).

Results

Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios.

Conclusion

The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Tonnang et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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