Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts

BMC Public Health

Graeme J Hankey⁶  Kieran McCaul⁴  Derrick Lopez⁴  Janni Leung⁸  Leon Flicker²  Julie Byles⁷  Wendy Brown³  Osvaldo Almeida¹  Deirdre McLaughlin⁸  Annette Dobson⁵ 

[1] Department of Psychiatry, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Australia;School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia;The University of Queensland, School of Human Movement Studies, St Lucia, Australia;Western Australian Centre for Health & Ageing, CMR, Western Australian Institute for Medical Research, Perth, Australia;The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Herston Road, Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia;Stroke Unit, Department of Neurology, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Australia;The University of Newcastle, Centre for Gender, Health and Ageing, Newcastle, Australia;The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Herston, Australia

关键词: Women;    Men;    Risk factors;    Mortality;   

Others  :  1163262
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-12-669

 received in 2011-12-07, accepted in 2012-08-09,  发布年份 2012

【 摘 要 】

Background

Estimates of the absolute risk of death based on the combined effects of sex, age and health behaviours are scarce for elderly people. The aim of this paper is to calculate population based estimates and display them using simple charts that may be useful communication tools for public health authorities, health care providers and policy makers.

Methods

Data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 7,438) and men (N = 6,053) aged 71 to 79. The outcome measure was death within ten years. The predictor variables were: sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity.

Results

Patterns of risks were similar in men and women but absolute risk of death was between 9 percentage points higher in men (17 %) than in women (8 %) in the lowest risk group (aged 71–73 years, never smoked, overweight, physically active and consumed alcohol weekly) and 21 % higher in men (73-74 %) than women (51-52 %) in the highest risk group (aged 77–79 years, normal weight or obese, current smoker, physically inactive and drink alcohol less than weekly).

Conclusions

These absolute risk charts provide a tool for understanding the combined effects of behavioural risk factors for death among older people.

【 授权许可】

   
2012 Dobson et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

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