Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore

BMC Public Health

Li Yang Hsu²  Marcus Eng Hock Ong¹  Khin Mar Kyi Win⁴  Yee Tang Wang⁴  Alex Richard Cook²  Cynthia Bin Eng Chee⁴  Leo Kang Yang Lim⁴  Arul Earnest³  Sourav Das²  Win Wah² 

[1] Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore;Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Research, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and NUHS, Singapore, Singapore;Centre for Quantitative Medicine, Duke NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore;Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Programme, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Novena, Singapore

关键词: Tuberculosis;    Time-series analysis;   

Others  :  1123100
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-14-1121

 received in 2014-06-25, accepted in 2014-10-17,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore.

Methods

Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011.

Results

There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates.

Conclusion

The study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Wah et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

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