Modelling the effects of media during an influenza epidemic

BMC Public Health

Jane M Heffernan¹  Shannon Collinson¹ 

[1]Modelling Infection and Immunity Lab, Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, Toronto, Canada

关键词: Agent-based Monte Carlo simulation;    Influenza;    Epidemic;    Mass media;   

Others  :  1131538
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-14-376

 received in 2013-09-04, accepted in 2014-04-04,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Mass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population. The effects of mass media during disease outbreaks have been studied in the mathematical modelling literature, by including ‘media functions’ that affect transmission rates in mathematical epidemiological models. The choice of function to employ, however, varies, and thus, epidemic outcomes that are important to inform public health may be affected.

Methods

We present a survey of the disease modelling literature with the effects of mass media. We present a comparison of the functions employed and compare epidemic results parameterized for an influenza outbreak. An agent-based Monte Carlo simulation is created to access variability around key epidemic measurements, and a sensitivity analysis is completed in order to gain insight into which model parameters have the largest influence on epidemic outcomes.

Results

Epidemic outcome depends on the media function chosen. Parameters that most influence key epidemic outcomes are different for each media function.

Conclusion

Different functions used to represent the effects of media during an epidemic will affect the outcomes of a disease model, including the variability in key epidemic measurements. Thus, media functions may not best represent the effects of media during an epidemic. A new method for modelling the effects of media needs to be considered.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Collinson and Heffernan; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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