Political and social determinants of life expectancy in less developed countries: a longitudinal study

BMC Public Health

Chang-Chuan Chan²  Lung-Chang Chien¹  Ya-Mei Chen³  Ro-Ting Lin³ 

[1] Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Health Behavior Research, School of Medicine, Washington University in St. Louis, 4444 Forest Park Avenue, Suite 6700, St. Louis 63108, USA;Global Health Center, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xuzhou Road, Taipei City 100, Taiwan;Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Room 722, No. 17, Xuzhou Road, Taipei City 100, Taiwan

关键词: Democracy;    Literacy;    Malnutrition;    Public health;    Political factors;    World health;    Developing countries;    Socioeconomic factors;    Life expectancy;   

Others  :  1163890
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-12-85

 received in 2011-08-10, accepted in 2012-01-27,  发布年份 2012

【 摘 要 】

Background

This study aimed to examine the longitudinal contributions of four political and socioeconomic factors to the increase in life expectancy in less developed countries (LDCs) between 1970 and 2004.

Methods

We collected 35 years of annual data for 119 LDCs on life expectancy at birth and on four key socioeconomic indicators: economy, measured by log10 gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity; educational environment, measured by the literacy rate of the adult population aged 15 years and over; nutritional status, measured by the proportion of undernourished people in the population; and political regime, measured by the regime score from the Polity IV database. Using linear mixed models, we analyzed the longitudinal effects of these multiple factors on life expectancy at birth with a lag of 0-10 years, adjusting for both time and regional correlations.

Results

The LDCs' increases in life expectancy over time were associated with all four factors. Political regime had the least influence on increased life expectancy to begin with, but became significant starting in the 3rd year and continued to increase, while the impact of the other socioeconomic factors began strong but continually decreased over time. The combined effects of these four socioeconomic and political determinants contributed 54.74% - 98.16% of the life expectancy gains throughout the lag periods of 0-10 years.

Conclusions

Though the effect of democratic politics on increasing life expectancy was relatively small in the short term when compared to the effects of the other socioeconomic factors, the long-term impact of democracy should not be underestimated.

【 授权许可】

   
2012 Lin et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

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