Research on Energy Consumption Prediction of Combined Models in Discrete Manufacturing Enterprises

2018 3rd International Conference on Insulating Materials, Material Application and Electrical Engineering

材料科学;无线电电子学;电工学

Wu, Peng^1 ; Zhu, Jun^1 ; Liu, Caiyun^1

Lianyungang Jari Deepsoft Technology Co., Ltd., JIANGSU

222002, China^1

关键词: Accurate prediction;    Combination predictions;    Discrete manufacturing;    Energy consumption prediction;    Prediction accuracy;    Strategic development;    Strategy formulations;    System dynamics model;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/452/3/032016/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/452/3/032016

学科分类：材料科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In discrete manufacturing enterprises, accurate prediction of energy consumption provides an important data basis for the strategic development and strategy formulation of enterprise managers. This paper uses the GM(1, 1) model and System Dynamics model to predict and analyze the energy consumption of a shipbuilding enterprise respectively. Secondly, the Shapley value method is used to determine the weight of each prediction model in the combined model, and to construct the energy consumption combination prediction model of a shipbuilding enterprise. The prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the combined model is higher than that of the single prediction model, which provides a new prediciton method for a shipbuilding enterprise and has reference value for other discrete manufacturing enterprises.