Forecasting Chilli Requirement with ARIMA Method

International Conference on Informatics, Engineering, Science and Technology

计算机科学;工业技术

Abinowi, E.^1 ; Sumitra, I.D.^1

Postgraduate Faculty of Indonesian Computer University, Universitas Komputer Indonesia, Indonesia^1

关键词: ABSOLUT;    Absolute values;    Art and science;    Forecasting methods;    Historical data;    Market price;    Production data;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012156/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012156

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The aim of the study Forecasting Chilli Requirement with ARIMA Method. The unbalanced over production causes the market price and production to be less than the amount of public consumption. Forecasting is the art and science of predicting events that will occur by using historical data and projecting it into the future with some form of mathematical modelling. To do the forecasting required a particular method and which method is used depends on the type of data to be predicted as well as the goal to be achieved. In this research using time series ARIMA forecasting method with data used data of chilli requirement and production data year 2011 until 2014. From resulted model hence calculated result of Mean Absolut Error (MAE) to see average of absolute value error at predicted result. The results of model trials conducted using ARIMA method (1, 1, 2) yield MAE of 12.18.