Market risk assessment on poultry industry using Monte Carlo simulation

2017 1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Technology

Purwaningsih, R.^1 ; Arief, M.^2 ; Handayani, N.U.^1 ; Rahmawati, D.^1 ; Mustikasari, A.^1

Industrial Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Diponegoro University, Kampus Undip Tembalang, Jl. Prof. Soedarto, SH, Semarang

50275, Indonesia^1

PT. Ciomas Adisatwa, Indonesia^2

关键词: Cost of productions;    Market risk assessment;    Monte Carlo simulation methods;    Poultry industry;    Production cost;    Profit and loss;    Research results;    Total production cost;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/403/1/012044/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/403/1/012044

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

One of risk in poultry industry is fluctuations in the selling price of live bird. This study aims to (1) calculate the cost of production and cost structure, (2) calculate the profit and loss, (3) measure the market risk of the farms. The study was done on 3000 population broilers farm at some district on East Java province. Value at risk and Monte Carlo simulation methods used to measure business risk. Research result define that the production cost of live bird production from farm is Rp 14338/kg and the selling price is Rp 15476/kg. The highest percentage of cost structure is feed cost. Feed cost reach 74% of total production cost. Simulation results show that broiler farm have a probability of loss risk of 54, 27%, categorize as high risk.