Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

7th AIC‐ICMR on Sciences and Engineering 2017

自然科学;工业技术

Maulia, Eva^1 ; Miftahuddin^1 ; Sofyan, Hizir^1

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Math and Sciences, University of Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh

233111, Indonesia^1

关键词: Acceptance models;    Economic problems;    Economic prosperity;    Error values;    Inflation rates;    Multivariate time series;    State budgets;    Vector error correction model;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/352/1/012056/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/352/1/012056

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.