Rabies epidemic model with uncertainty in parameters: crisp and fuzzy approaches

Indonesian Operations Research Association - International Conference on Operations Research 2017

Ndii, M.Z.^1 ; Amarti, Z.^2 ; Wiraningsih, E.D.^3 ; Supriatna, A.K.^2

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nusa Cendana, Kupang-NTT, Indonesia^1

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Padjadjaran, Bandung-West Java, Indonesia^2

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, State University of Jakarta, DKI-Jakarta, Indonesia^3

关键词: Epidemic modeling;    Fuzzy approach;    Potential contacts;    Rabies;    Transmission dynamics;    Transmission rates;    uncertainty;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/332/1/012031/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/332/1/012031

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

A deterministic mathematical model is formulated to investigate the transmission dynamics of rabies. In particular, we investigate the effects of vaccination, carrying capacity and the transmission rate on the rabies epidemics and allow for uncertainty in the parameters. We perform crisp and fuzzy approaches. We find that, in the case of crisp parameters, rabies epidemics may be interrupted when the carrying capacity and the transmission rate are not high. Our findings suggest that limiting the growth of dog population and reducing the potential contact between susceptible and infectious dogs may aid in interrupting rabies epidemics. We extend the work by considering a fuzzy carrying capacity and allow for low, medium, and high level of carrying capacity. The result confirms the results obtained by using crisp carrying capacity, that is, when the carrying capacity is not too high, the vaccination could confine the disease effectively.