Loss of Load Probability Calculation for West Java Power System with Nuclear Power Plant Scenario

1st Annual Applied Science and Engineering Conference

工业技术;自然科学

Azizah, I.D.^1 ; Abdullah, A.G.^1 ; Purnama, W.^1 ; Nandiyanto, A.B.D.^2 ; Shafii, M.A.^3

Departemen Pendidikan Teknik Elektro, Fakultas Pendidikan Teknologi Dan Kejuruan, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Indonesia^1

Departemen Pendidikan Kimia, Fakultas Pendidikan Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Indonesia^2

Department of Physics, Andalas University, Padang, West Sumatera, Indonesia^3

关键词: Electrical systems;    Forced outage rates;    Load duration curves;    Load forecasting;    Loss of load probabilities (LOLP);    Multiple regression methods;    Plant availability;    Reliability Index;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/180/1/012079/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/180/1/012079

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) index showing the quality and performance of an electrical system. LOLP value is affected by load growth, the load duration curve, forced outage rate of the plant, number and capacity of generating units. This reliability index calculation begins with load forecasting to 2018 using multiple regression method. Scenario 1 with compositions of conventional plants produce the largest LOLP in 2017 amounted to 71.609 days / year. While the best reliability index generated in scenario 2 with the NPP amounted to 6.941 days / year in 2015. Improved reliability of systems using nuclear power more efficiently when compared to conventional plants because it also has advantages such as emission-free, inexpensive fuel costs, as well as high level of plant availability.