Computation of tail probabilities for non-classical gasdynamic phenomena

1st International Seminar on Non-Ideal Compressible-Fluid Dynamics for Propulsion & Power

物理学;力学

Razaaly, N.^1 ; Congedo, P.M.^1

INRIA Bordeaux Sud-Ouest, 200 Rue de la Vieille Tour, Talence

33405, France^1

关键词: Accurate estimation;    Computer modeling;    Dense gas;    Gas-dynamic phenomenon;    Initial flow;    Probability of occurrence;    Quantity of interest;    Tail probability;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/821/1/012006/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/821/1/012006

学科分类：力学，机械学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a novel method for computing the tail probability of a given quantity of interest by using only a low number of evaluations of the computer model, representing the problem of interest under uncertainties. This method is then applied to the study of rarefaction shock waves (RSW) in a dense-gas shock tube. It is well-known in literature that the prediction of a RSW is highly sensitive to uncertainties on the initial flow conditions. The objective of this work is to compute a very accurate estimation of the RSW probability of occurrence in a shock tube configuration.