Simulations of a epidemic model with parameters variation analysis for the dengue fever

4th International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences

物理学;数学

Jardim, C.L.T.F.^1 ; Prates, D.B.^1 ; Silva, J.M.^1 ; Ferreira, L.A.F.^1 ; Kritz, M.V.^1

Universidade Federal Dos Vales Do Jequitinhonlia e Mucuri, Minas Gerais, Brazil^1

关键词: Biological factors;    Cross-immunity;    Developed model;    Epidemic modeling;    Numerical solution;    Original model;    Parameters variations;    Seasonal characteristics;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/633/1/012008/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/633/1/012008

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Mathematical models can be widely found in the literature for describing and analyzing epidemics. The models that use differential equations to represent mathematically such description are specially sensible to parameters involved in the modelling. In this work, an already developed model, called SIR, is analyzed when applied to a scenario of a dengue fever epidemic. Such choice is powered by the existence of useful tools presented by a variation of this original model, which allow an inclusion of different aspects of the dengue fever disease, as its seasonal characteristics, the presence of more than one strain of the vector and of the biological factor of cross-immunity. The analysis and results interpretation are performed through numerical solutions of the model in question, and a special attention is given to the different solutions generated by the use of different values for the parameters present in this model. Slight variations are performed either dynamically or statically in those parameters, mimicking hypothesized changes in the biological scenario of this simulation and providing a source of evaluation of how those changes would affect the outcomes of the epidemic in a population.