Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

2016 Congress on Industrial and Applied Life Sciences & Mathematics

工业技术;生物科学;数学

Takaidza, I.^1 ; Makinde, O.D.^2 ; Okosun, O.K.^3

School of Information Technology, North West University, Vanderbijlpark, South Africa^1

Faculty of Military Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Saldanha, South Africa^2

Mathematics Department, Vaal University of Technology, Vanderbijlpark, South Africa^3

关键词: Basic reproductive number;    Computational modelling;    Cost effective;    Disease spread;    Epidemic modeling;    Non-linear incidence rates;    Optimal controls;    Time control;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/818/1/012003/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/818/1/012003

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R0to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.