Principal wind turbines for a conditional portfolio approach to wind farms

The Science of Making Torque from Wind 2014

Lopes, Vitor V.^1,2 ; Scholz, Teresa^3,4 ; Raischel, Frank^5 ; Lind, Pedro G.^6

DEIO-CIO, Science Faculty, University of Lisbon, Portugal^1

Universidad de Las Fuerzas Armadas-ESPE, Latacunga, Ecuador^2

Center for Theoretical and Computational Physics, University of Lisbon, Portugal^3

Energy Analysis and Networks Unit, National Laboratory of Energy and Geology, Lisbon, Portugal^4

Center for Geophysics, IDL, University of Lisbon, Portugal^5

ForWind-Center for Wind Energy Research, Institute of Physics, Carl-von-Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany^6

关键词: Expected return;    Linear combinations;    Power production;    Time step;    Total power;    Velocity field;    Wind farm;    Wind field;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/524/1/012183/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/524/1/012183

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

We introduce a measure for estimating the best risk-return relation of power production in wind farms within a given time-lag, conditioned to the velocity field. The velocity field is represented by a scalar that weighs the influence of the velocity at each wind turbine at present and previous time-steps for the present "state" of the wind field. The scalar measure introduced is a linear combination of the few turbines, that most influence the overall power production. This quantity is then used as the condition for computing a conditional expected return and corresponding risk associated to the future total power output.