Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

2nd International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences 2013

物理学;数学

Juanico, Drandreb Earl O.^1

Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights Quezon City, 1108, Philippines^1

关键词: Asymptotic solutions;    Backward Kolmogorov equations;    Infectious disease;    Influenza epidemics;    Mean exit time;    Recurrent epidemics;    Stochastic epidemic models;    Temporal signatures;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/490/1/012188/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/490/1/012188

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks.