Projection in Extreme Climate Events and uncertainty analysis in the Source Area of the Yellow River for the Next Three Decades

2018 1st International Conference on Environment Prevention and Pollution Control Technology

生态环境科学

Han, Yu Ping^1,3 ; Chen, Zi Tian^1 ; Xiao, Heng^2,3

Yellow River Institute of Science, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou

450045, China^1

School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou

450045, China^2

Collaborative Innovation Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Support Engineering, Zhengzhou

450045, China^3

关键词: Diurnal temperature ranges;    Extreme temperatures;    Maximum temperature;    Minimum temperatures;    Precipitation events;    Precipitation frequency;    Source area of the yellow rivers;    Temporal characteristics;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/199/2/022024/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/199/2/022024

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation events were studied by using extreme climate indices based on the daily outputs of five general climate models (GCMs), including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, in the period of 2021-2050 under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results show that compared with the period of 1971-2000, Warmest day and Warm days (the warm event) could increase by 1.4°C and 12.5d, respectively, and Frost days and Cool nights (the cold event) could decrease by 24.5d and 6.8d, respectively. The coldest night could increase by 2.1°C, the diurnal temperature range could decrease by 0.1°C. The precipitation frequency and intensity indices (Number of heavy precipitation days, Simple daily intensity indices, Max 1-day precipitation amount and Max 5-day precipitation amount) could increase by 1.1d, 3.1%, 8.4% and 6.3%, respectively. The very wet days could increase by 24.6% and the consecutive dry days could decrease by 12.3d. But, the spatial distributions of changes in extreme climate events are uneven. Although projected changes are still uncertain to some extent, the trends among different GCMs show a good consistency.