A note on analysis of extreme minimum temperatures with the GAMLSS framework

Acta Geophysica

article

Rydén, Jesper¹ 

[1] Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

关键词: GEV distribution;    GAMLSS;    Non-stationary models;    Extreme temperatures;    Model selection;   

DOI  :  10.1007/s11600-019-00363-6

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: Polska Akademia Nauk * Instytut Geofizyki

【 摘 要 】

Estimation of return levels, based on extreme value distributions, is of importance in the earth and environmental sciences. To incorporate non-stationarity in the modelling, the statistical framework of generalised additive models for location, scale and shape is an option, providing flexibility and with a wide range of distributions implemented. With a large set of selections possible, model choice is an issue. As a case study, we investigate annual minimum temperatures from measurements at a location in northern Sweden. For practical work, it turns out that care must be taken in examining the obtained distributions, not solely relying on information criteria. A simulation study illustrates the findings.

【 授权许可】

Unknown