Quantitative estimation of the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflow variations in the Poyang Lake Basin during the last 55 years

4th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

Wang, R.N.^1,2,3 ; Peng, W.Q.^1,2 ; Liu, X.B.^1,2 ; Wu, W.Q.^1,2 ; Chen, X.K.^1,2 ; Zhang, S.J.^1,2 ; Jiang, C.L.^3

Department of Water Environment, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing

100038, China^1

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing

100038, China^2

College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing

210098, China^3

关键词: Anthropogenic activity;    Contribution rate;    Hurst exponents;    Major factors;    Poyang Lake basins;    Quantitative estimation;    Scientific basis;    Waterresource management;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012080/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012080

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The Poyang Lake Basin is a typical flood- and drought-prone region in China. This study applied methods of cumulative anomaly, Hurst exponent, and slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) to analyse the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflow changes of Poyang Lake during the last 55 years. Taking the period of 1961 to 1991 as the base period, results show that the contribution rates of precipitation and anthropogenic activities to inflow changes were 58.7% and 41.3% during the period of 1992 to 2002 and 6.5% and 93.5% during the period of 2003 to 2015, respectively. These results indicate that the impacts of anthropogenic activities on the inflow changes have reinforced gradually and have become the major factor during the last decade. In general, this study provides a reliable scientific basis for water resource management in similar basins.