Traffic Accident Analysis With Or Without Bus Priority

2018 International Conference on Civil and Hydraulic Engineering

土木建筑工程;水利工程

Li, Lin^1 ; Wenfang, Tan^1 ; Yuqi, Miao^1 ; Xiyuan, Zhou^2 ; Rujing, Gao^2

Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing Jiangsu Province

210037, China^1

Jinling High School Hexi Campus, Nanjing Jiangsu Province

210019, China^2

关键词: Accident analysis;    Accident frequency;    Accident research;    Collision accidents;    Empirical analysis;    Mixed effects models;    Neural network model;    Traffic priorities;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/189/6/062024/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/189/6/062024

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Based on the empirical analysis of the bus accident data, this paper discusses the impact of bus priority on road safety. Based on the conclusions of road safety performance and the results of traffic accident research, the public traffic priority measures are proposed. Through the empirical analysis of the types of accidents, it has been found that the proportion of bus collision accidents involved in the bus priority measures is significantly reduced, which indicates that the bus will give priority to the collision with other vehicles. Mixed-effect negative binomial (MENB) regression model and BPNN neural network model were used to consider bus accidents that have more extensive impact on accident rates in some sections of the road. The results show that the safety benefits are more significant when providing bus priority measures. The sensitivity analysis performed on the BPNN model shows that the predicted values of the accident frequencies are basically the same between the two models. The performance of MENB model results shows that it is advantageous to use a mixed-effects modeling method to predict accident counts in practice because it can take into account the effects of specific factors. Therefore, research on the priority status of buses will help improve road safety. When implementing road programs, road management agencies should give priority to bus priority measures.