Bayesian-Networks-Based Risk Evaluation Approach of Offshore Platform

2018 5th International Conference on Coastal and Ocean Engineering

Yuan, Xiaobing^1 ; Cai, Baoping^1 ; Shao, Xiaoyan^1 ; Kong, Xiangdi^1 ; Liu, Yonghong^1 ; Chen, Guoming^1

College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong

266580, China^1

关键词: Bayesian network models;    Collision accidents;    Off shore platforms;    Offshore oil platform;    Parameter analysis;    Prior probability;    Risk evaluation;    Verification and analysis;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/171/1/012019/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/171/1/012019

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a Bayesian-networks-based risk evaluation approach of offshore oil platform, through the investigation of offshore oil platform is prone to accidents, to understand the structure of the relevant subsystems and collect the prior probability of related events. Then the events are divided into a three-tier structure, and the typical Bayesian network model of fire and collision accident in offshore oil platform is established. The corresponding parameter analysis is made to complete the verification and analysis of the model. The results show that the method based on Bayesian network can carry out effective risk analysis, and the risk assessment is feasible and advantageous by using this method.