Human Activity and the Global Temperature of the Planet

Arctic: History and Modernity

Skripnuk, D.F.^1 ; Samylovskaya, E.A.^1

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia^1

关键词: Auto-regressive;    Dynamic factors;    Empirical testing;    Global temperatures;    Human activities;    Natural environments;    Road freight traffic;    Water extraction;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012021/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012021

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper reports on the dependence of the average global temperature on those factors that influence. The current assessment of global temperature is also influenced by previous assessments as of this process as well as by various dynamic factors of human activity. Human activity can be evaluated using a set of factors: waste generated by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning; waste generated by households; global GDP; road freight traffic; fresh surface water extraction; area of forested land. This paper details the important processes in any given natural environment: a) climatological disasters; b) changes in CO2 levels; (c) proportion of greenhouse gases caused by changes to industry; d) proportion of greenhouse gases caused by changes in agriculture; e) changes in global temperatures; f) changes in fresh water reserves g) changes in area of forested land. To theoretically model the effect of human activity on global temperatures, the autoregressive distributed lags (ADL) model was chosen. Current values generated using the ADL model depend both on previous values, and on the current and previous values of other variables. Empirical testing of the model is described and carried out to validate the results.