Modelling the Effect of Human Activity on Fresh Water Extraction from the Earth's Reserves

Arctic: History and Modernity

Kikkas, K.N.^1 ; Kulik, S.V.^1,2

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia^1

St. Petersburg State University, Russia^2

关键词: Current estimates;    Empirical testing;    Environmental process;    Historical background;    Impact on the environment;    Model parameters;    Statistical information;    Theoretical modeling;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012017/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012017

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper reports on dependencies in changes to fresh water extraction patterns on the various influencing factors. The aim of the study is to develop a mathematical model to predict the influence of human activity on fresh water extraction from the Earth's reserves. The historical background of the process affects the current estimate for fresh water extraction. The current estimate of fresh water extraction is affected by various dynamic factors in human life as well as environmental processes. As a theoretical model for analysing the influence of human activities and their impact on the environment, the authors selected the autoregressive distributed lags model (ADL-model), in which the current values of the series depend both on past values of the series as well as current and past values of other time series. The authors described the methodology of empirical tests of the model. The paper presents the methods used to construct the model and approaches to determining model parameters. Statistical information for the model variables was collected from 1995 to 2016. Empirical testing of the model was carried out by the authors.