Territorial-sectoral modelling of the automotive industry in the Russian Federation

Arctic: History and Modernity

Kikkas, K.^1

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg

195251, Russia^1

关键词: Exogenous variables;    Functional approach;    Human activities;    Human lives;    Russian federation;    Short-term forecasts;    System of equations;    Three-level models;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012015/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012015

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The paper describes a territorial-sectoral model for the development of the automotive industry. This model is based on a novel institutional-functional approach proposed by author. It explains the choice of the indicators assessing the main areas of human activity on the territory and the indicators evaluating the automotive industry that operates on this territory. The distinctive feature of the institutional-functional approach is that it includes both such variables as spheres of human life on the territory in which the automotive industry functions and variables of the automotive industry into the model. The model includes three levels, each of which has the system of equations, from 6 to 8 equations. At each subsequent level, the endogenous indicators of the previous level become exogenous. The model comprises a system of interrelated and interdependent econometric equations. Each equation is formulated as an ADL model. Within the system of interrelated and interdependent econometric equations, a correlation between endogenous and exogenous variables in the automotive industry and spheres of human activity in the territory is demonstrated. A three-level model for the development analysing of the Russian automotive industry is proposed. On the basis of the constructed model, a short-term forecast until 2020 is presented.