Monitoring of risk of multidimensional stochastic system as tools for a research of sustainable development of regions

International Conference on Sustainable Cities

地球科学;经济学

Tyrsin, A.N.^1,2 ; Surina, A.A.^3

Ural Federal University Named after the First President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg

620002, Russia^1

Science and Engineering Center Reliability and Resource of Large Systems and Machines, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg

620049, Russia^2

South Ural State University (National Research University), Chelyabinsk

454080, Russia^3

关键词: Gaussian random variable;    Mathematical expectation;    New approaches;    Numerical characteristics;    Probabilistic properties;    Random vectors;    Risk factors;    Risk function;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/177/1/012005/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/177/1/012005

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

New approach for a research of sustainable development of regions and cities is offered. It is based on the risk model of multidimensional stochastic system. In article the risk model of multidimensional stochastic system with interdependent factors is described. The hypothesis which consists that the risk can be managed by changing probabilistic properties of a component of multidimensional stochastic system is the cornerstone of the offered risk model. At the same time the multidimensional stochastic system is modeled in the form of a random vector which components in generally are mutually correlated. The questions of formation of multidimensional areas of dangerous states and calculation of risk are described. The representation of risk function is shown. For regions of the Ural Federal District on group of risk factors numerical characteristics of a multidimensional Gaussian random variable - a covariance matrix and a vector of mathematical expectations are found. Results of calculation of probability of a dangerous outcome and risk depending on the found numerical characteristics are given.