Influence of ENSO on Deviation of The Season Onset in Java Based on CCAM Downscaling Data

Humanosphere Science School 2017; 7th International Symposium for a Sustainable Humanosphere

地球科学;经济学

Satyawardhana, H.^1 ; Trismidianto^1 ; Yulihastin, E.^1

Center of Atmospheric Science and Technology, National Institute of Aeronautics and Space, Bandung, Indonesia^1

关键词: Down-scaling;    Influence of ENSO;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/166/1/012030/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/166/1/012030

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The research of season onset in Java is very important, considering Java is the center of agriculture in Indonesia. The onset of the rainy and drought season in Java are strongly influenced by global atmospheric phenomena, such as monsoon and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study used spatial analysis from previous researches focusing on insitu data. The data used in this current study based on the downscaling output of atmospheric model with ±15km spatial resolution. The result shows that the season onset deviation in Java Island exist when El Nino and La Nina occurred. When the El Nino (La Nina) occurred, the onset of drought season in Java has a tendency to come faster (slower) than neutral conditions. On the other hand, when El Nino (La Nina) occurs, the onset of rainy season in Java comes slower (faster) compared to the neutral condition. This is probably related to disturbance of monsoon in Indonesia when El Nino and La Nina occurred. The study also confirmed that the effects of El Nino and La Nina in the rainy season are stronger than in the dry season.