System Dynamics Modeling of Indonesia Population Projection Model

1st UPI International Geography Seminar 2017

Pitoyo, A.J.^1 ; Ulhaq, M.D.^2 ; Wahid, A.^3 ; Taqiyyah, S.^3

Department of Environmental Geography, Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Center for Population and Policy Studies, Gadjah Mada University, Bulak Sumur, Sleman, DI Yogyakarta

55281, Indonesia^1

Department of Environmental Geography, Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia^2

Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus Baru UI Depok, Jawa Barat

16424, Indonesia^3

关键词: Age structures;    Development policies;    Feed-back loop;    Population projections;    Population survey;    System Dynamics;    System dynamics model;    United Nations;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/145/1/012117/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/145/1/012117

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Population projections are indispensable for the planning of future development policies due to the characteristic of the data provided is periodically such as for ten years (census population, SP) and five years (inter-census population surveys, SUPAS). System Dynamics method is suitable to use for making population projections over time since it implements the feedback loop. The model uses four stages according with the age structure used: youth (0-19 years), adult (20-39 years), middle age (40-59 years), and old (60+ years). The result of total population projection shows that the difference of absolute average with United Nations (UN) projection is 0,149% (less than BPS projection result as 0,360%) and 0.82% with PSKK. This result was able to improve BPS projection as 59%. The projection result based on the age structure shows that the differences of absolute average with UN projection are 1% (youth), 1% (adult), 5% (middle age), and 12% (old).