A forecasting model for power consumption of high energy-consuming industries based on system dynamics

International Conference on Energy Engineering and Environmental Protection 2017

能源学;生态环境科学

Zhou, Zongchuan^1 ; Dang, Dongsheng^1 ; Qi, Caijuan^1 ; Tian, Hongliang^1

State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Eco-tech Research Institute, China^1

关键词: Aluminium industry;    Flow diagram;    Forecasting modeling;    System Dynamics;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052030/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052030

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

It is of great significance to make accurate forecasting for the power consumption of high energy-consuming industries. A forecasting model for power consumption of high energy-consuming industries based on system dynamics is proposed in this paper. First, several factors that have influence on the development of high energy-consuming industries in recent years are carefully dissected. Next, by analysing the relationship between each factor and power consumption, the system dynamics flow diagram and equations are set up to reflect the relevant relationships among variables. In the end, the validity of the model is verified by forecasting the power consumption of electrolytic aluminium industry in Ningxia according to the proposed model.