A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

3rd International Conference on Advances in Energy Resources and Environment Engineering

能源学;生态环境科学

Zhang, C.^1 ; Qin, T.X.^1 ; Jiang, B.^2 ; Huang, C.^3

Institute for Public Safety Standardization, China National Institute of Standardization, No. 4 Zhichun Road, Haidian District, Beijing

100191, China^1

School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, No.24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, Chengdu

610065, China^2

Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, No. 1 Tsinghuayuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing

100084, China^3

关键词: Accident simulation;    Analysis models;    Emergency response;    Energy transportation;    Environment conditions;    Oil pipelines;    Probabilistic analysis;    Sensitive analysis;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/113/1/012083/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/113/1/012083

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.