Analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to ecological management under changing environment in the Tarim River Basin, China

1st International Global on Renewable Energy and Development

Yang, Fan^1 ; Xue, Lianqing^1,2,4 ; Zhang, Luochen^3 ; Chen, Xinfang^1 ; Chi, Yixia^1,4

Hydrology and Water Resources College, Hohai University, Nanjing

210098, China^1

Shihezi University, Shihezi

832003, China^2

Tarim River Basin Administration, Korla

841000, China^3

Hohai University Wentian College, Maanshan

243000, China^4

关键词: Anthropogenic factors;    Auto-regressive moving average model (ARMA);    Changing environment;    Ecological environments;    Ecological managements;    Ecological protection;    Resources scheduling;    Utilization strategy;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/100/1/012194/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/100/1/012194

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This article aims to explore the adaptive utilization strategies of flow regime versus traditional practices in the context of climate change and human activities in the arid area. The study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Budyko method and adaptive utilization strategies to eco-hydrological regime by comparing the applicability between autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) model and combined regression model. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in streamflow deduction in the mainstream with contribution of 120.7%∼190.1%. While in the headstreams, climatic variables were the primary determinant of streamflow by 56.5∼152.6% of the increase. The comparison revealed that combined regression model performed better than ARMA model with the qualified rate of 80.49∼90.24%. Based on the forecasts of streamflow for different purposes, the adaptive utilization scheme of water flow is established from the perspective of time and space. Our study presents an effective water resources scheduling scheme for the ecological environment and provides references for ecological protection and water allocation in the arid area.