Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

Energy Management of Municipal Transportation Facilities and Transport - EMMFT 2017

Titarenko, Boris^1

Moscow State Civil Engineering University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Moscow, Russia^1

关键词: Automated control systems;    Construction projects;    Managing innovation;    Probabilistic methods;    Probability of occurrence;    Quantitative assessments;    Reliability of results;    Transport infrastructure;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012057/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012057

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.