Development of advanced mathematical predictive models for assessing damage avoided accidents on potentially-dangerous sea-based energy facility

Energy Management of Municipal Transportation Facilities and Transport - EMMFT 2017

Tumanov, Aleksandr^1 ; Gumenyuk, Vasily^1 ; Tumanov, Vladimir^1

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Polytechnicheskaya, 29, St. Petersburg

195251, Russia^1

关键词: Adverse events;    Emergency situation;    Integral indicators;    Main parameters;    Predictive models;    Risk factors;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012027/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012027

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The article is devoted to the development of mathematical model for assessing the harm accidents on potentially-dangerous sea-based energy object. Made choice of regression mathematical model that best represents the relationship of the integral indicator with a set of risk factors of emergency situations their probabilities. Shows the main parameters of the model and result indicators. A mathematical model in which risk assessment in addition to the probability of the adverse events, risk factors and possible consequences taken into account the vulnerability of the object.