Linkages between precipitation cycle and slope stability: A case study in the Caijiapo landslide among Weihe River Basin

3rd International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

Zhu, Y.L.^1,2 ; Qi, G.P.^1

College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, Gansu

730070, China^1

School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'An University of Technology, Xi'an, Shaanxi

710048, China^2

关键词: High probability;    Precipitation cycles;    Prediction techniques;    Previous year;    Slope factors;    Stability factor;    Time interval;    Weihe rivers;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/82/1/012092/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/82/1/012092

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

It is of great importance to forecast landslide in future certain time interval. Hence, this study proposed a method combination precipitation period with variety of slope stability factor based on macro scale. This study designed 5 grades of rainfall strength simulation and corresponding 5 grades of slope state using Markoff prediction technique analysis change of slope factor K in the short time. Results indicated that: (1) the rainfall in Baoji area has three periods of 5a, 13a and 25a, in which 5a is the primary period; (2) the slope safety factor K has a similar fluctuation trend compared to precipitation state, thus division slope factor K of 5 grade as safety state, basically safety state, stable state, partial risk state and risk state, respectively; (3) in the previous year if slope in the safety, basically safe and stable state, in the next year slope factor K above 1.15 has 60%, 75% and 72% probability, respectively; (4) when the previous year at partial risk or risk situation, there is high probability that value of the K is always more than 1.15, it is means to a great extent the landslide have already occurred, thus defined a concept which between "the safety state after destruction" and "safety state have no destruction".