Reliability-based Assessment of Stability of Slopes

International Symposium on Geohazards and Geomechanics 2015

地球科学;生态环境科学

Hsein Juang, C.^1 ; Zhang, Jie^2 ; Gong, Wenping^1

Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson

SC

29634, United States^1

Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai

200092, China^2

关键词: Evaluation of slope stabilities;    Parameter uncertainty;    Practical procedures;    Reliability based design;    Reliability-based robust design;    Site-specific information;    Statistical characterization;    System failure probability;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/26/1/012006/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/26/1/012006

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Multiple sources of uncertainties often exist in the evaluation of slope stability. When assessing stability of slopes in the face of uncertainties, it is desirable, and sometimes necessary, to adopt reliability-based approaches that consider these uncertainties explicitly. This paper focuses on the practical procedures developed recently for the reliability-based assessment of slope stability. The statistical characterization of model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty are first described, followed by an evaluation of the failure probability of a slope corresponding to a single slip surface, and the system failure probability. The availability of site-specific information then makes it possible to update the reliability of the slope through the Bayes' theorem. Furthermore, how to perform reliability-based design when the statistics of random variables cannot be determined accurately is also discussed. Finally, case studies are presented to illustrate the benefit of performing reliability-based design and the procedure for conducting reliability-based robust design when the statistics of the random variables are incomplete.