Land use change and prediction in the Baimahe Basin using GIS and CA-Markov model

35th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

Wang, Shixu^1,2 ; Zhang, Zulu^1,4 ; Wang, Xue^3,4

School of Population, Resources and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China^1

Shandong Academy of Governance, Jinan 250014, China^2

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China^3

Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, Linyi 276000, China^4

关键词: Construction land;    Farmland protections;    Grain for green projects;    Land use dynamics;    Land use pattern;    Land-use systems;    Regional sustainable development;    Structure change;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/17/1/012074/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/17/1/012074

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Using ArcGIS and IDRISI, land use dynamics and Shannon entropy information were applied in this paper to analyze the quantity and structure change in the Baimahe Basin from 1996 to 2008. A CA-Markov model was applied to predict the land use patterns in 2020. Results showed that farmland, forest and construction land are the dominant land use types in the Baimahe Basin. From 1996 to 2008, areas of farmland and forest decreased and other land use types increased, with construction land increasing the most. The prediction results showed that the changes in land use patterns from 2008 to 2020 would be the same with those from 1996 to 2008. Main changes are the transiting out of farmland and forest and the transiting in of construction land. The order degree of the whole basin goes on decreasing. Measures of farmland protection and grain for green projects should be adopted to enhance the stability of land use system in the Baimahe Basin in order to promote regional sustainable development.