Prediction on China's Energy Consumption Demand Trend Based on Bayesian Theorem

3rd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Gao, Chunjiao^1 ; Lian, Yinghui^1

Fuzhou University of International Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, Fujian

350202, China^1

关键词: Bayesian Theorem;    Dimensionality reduction;    Energy consumption datum;    Estimated parameter;    Mean absolute percentage error;    Priori information;    Root mean square errors;    Single time series;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/300/4/042088/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/300/4/042088

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper applies SAS software for data mining and takes the energy consumption data from 2000 to 2015 as the training set and the corresponding data from 2016 to 2017 as comparative set. Due to the exponentially fluctuation of data, the author sets a nonlinear modified exponential rudimentary model, which, when combined with white noise experiment and diagrammatic figure analysis, the model's fitting effect can be inferred. The result shows that the data extraction of the model is not sufficient enough so that the model should be improved. Seen in that light, the author tries to do dimensionality reduction and differential processing to the original sequence and applies the classical time series ARIMA model for adjustment. It comes out that the fitted model should be ARIMA(4,2,1). The solved result illustrates that the information of the model has been well and sufficiently extracted. After that, the Bayesian model is constructed by taking the estimated parameters of the time series ARIMA model as priori information. The prediction effects of the three models are finally evaluated by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root-mean-square Error (RMSE). The result shows that the prediction effect of Bayesian model is somehow superior to that of single time series model. According to the prediction result of Bayesian model based on prior robust, the general demand for energy consumption in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period tends to climb by a small margin.