Analysis of drought characteristics in southern Indonesia based on return period measurement

5th International Seminar on Sciences

自然科学（总论）

Parkhurst, H.^1 ; Nurdiati, S.^1 ; Sopaheluwakan, A.^2

Departement of Mathemathics, IPB University, Bogor

16680, Indonesia^1

Research and Development Center, Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, INA, Jakarta

10720, Indonesia^2

关键词: Agricultural sector;    Drought characteristics;    Estimation results;    Future climate;    Geographical profiles;    Monthly rainfalls;    Observation data;    Standardized precipitation index;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/299/1/012050/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/299/1/012050

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The agricultural sector, especially the production of food crops is a pillar of the economy in Indonesia with production centers located in Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara. One of the causes of the decline in food crop production is the drought caused by climate change. Drought can be calculated by the Standardized Precipitation Index which is an index to measure the severity of a region's drought. The severity of a region's drought can reach the highest value which can be used to estimate the period of drought occurring repeatedly. Furthermore, the estimation results can be used to obtain the Return Period value which is the average time of drought that has occurred by determining the maximum severity of the drought. To anticipate drought that occurs repeatedly, the purpose of this research is to identify the characteristics of drought from the Return Period based on the geographical profile of Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara. The data used is monthly rainfall observation data for the period from 1985 to 2014 which describes the current drought events and data on monthly rainfall scenarios for the period from 2016 to 2100 based on the Representative Concentration Pathways that describe the future climate. The result of data analysis indicates that the Return Period geographically provides an overview of various regions. In the more wet region, there is a reduction in rainfall, while the drier region does not experience a significant reduction in rainfall. The general result shows, that in the long run Java will experience a reduction in rainfall more that of in Bali and Nusa Tenggara.