Predicted Rainfall and discharge Using Vector Autoregressive Models in Water Resources Management in the High Hill Takengon

11th Aceh International Workshop and Expo on Sustainable Tsunami Disaster Recovery

Ramli, I.^1 ; Rusdiana, S.^2 ; Basri, H.^3 ; Munawar, A.A.^1 ; Zelia, V.A.^1

Agriculture Engineering Departement, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia^1

Mathematics and Natural Science Departement, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia^2

Soil Science Departement, Agriculture Faculty, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia^3

关键词: Auto-regressive;    Climate elements;    Coefficient of determination;    Discharge conditions;    Prediction tests;    Rainfall prediction;    Vector autoregressive model;    Water resources management;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/273/1/012009/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/273/1/012009

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Rainfall is one of climate element that is very important to be studied. The relationship between rainfall and discharge needs to be known to see the size of the discharges so that it depends on the rain and the initial discharge conditions that occur. This study aims to predicted rainfall and discharge by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR), rainfall and discharge data in 2008-2015 is used to predicted rainfall for the next five years 2016-2020. While the data for 2016-2017 is used as a comparison for the predictive data obtained in this study. The results of the actual data accuracy test with predictive data from the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model, which is done with the NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) worth 0.9522. Predicted rainfall value with actual rainfall based on R2 value (coefficient of determination) is 0.6584 or 66%. While the debit prediction test with actual discharge has a R2 coefficient of determination of 0.0691 or 6.91%. It is because there are other factors that affect discharge other than rainfall. Rainfall in the Takengon plateau which is predicted to be unstable in the future. This condition is the same as the rainfall in the previous periods which fluctuated at the same point. Rainfall prediction results until 2020, has the highest peak season in December.